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Prediction for CME (2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-28T20:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27924/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 after a data gap from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. Overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:24Z in the coronagraphs, and is a separate, measurable CME occurring in close succession from the same active region. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z associated with an M3.4 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or an M9.8 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. Eruption is also visible in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 28nT, and an increase in speed from 373 km/s at 2023-12-01T08:49Z to 560 km/s at 09:20Z. Subsequent increases in density and temperature were observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T08:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T05:46Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-11-29 00:03
 - Time at C2: 2023-11-28 20:24
 - Radial speed: 910.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N00W13
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 679.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-12-01 05:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.37 hours)
Lead Time: 32.53 hour(s)
Difference: 3.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-11-30T00:16Z
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